Current:Home > ContactThe job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing? -WealthRoots Academy
The job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing?
View
Date:2025-04-16 18:13:19
The country's job market is finally showing signs of cooling – but it may still be a tad too strong.
That may sound strange. In a traditional economy, a strong labor market would usually be a good thing, but it's not so positive in an economy that continues to struggle with high inflation.
U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, according to data out on Friday. That's below the pace of recent months but it's still a very solid number.
And the overall labor market remains tight, with the unemployment falling to 3.6%, low by historic standards. Meanwhile, wages also continue to rise, increasing at an annual rate of 4.4%.
Here are some key takeaways from the Labor Department's June jobs report:
The jobs engine is shifting down
It may be a slowdown, but any month when the U.S. economy adds more than 200,000 jobs is a solid gain.
In fact, the economy may need the labor market to slow down further to help bring down inflation.
There are some signs that's happening. June's employment increase was the smallest since December 2020.
Job gains for April and May were also revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs.
In the first six months of this year, monthly job growth averaged 278,000 jobs — a significant downshift from the previous six months when employers were adding an average of 354,000 jobs every month.
But all in all, this is still a strong jobs market.
Why the labor market is still so solid
The resilience of the job market has surprised many economists given that the Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down the economy and bring down inflation.
But people continue to spend, especially on activities like eating out or traveling on vacation.
In fact, people are spending about twice as much money on services as they do on goods, and lately that gap has widened.
Spending on services rose 0.4% in May while spending on goods fell by 0.5%.
Employers pay attention to those spending patterns when deciding whether to hire more workers — and it was reflected in June's jobs data.
Service industries such as health care and hospitality continued to add jobs last month, the data showed, but goods-oriented industries such as retail and warehousing have been cutting workers.
The unemployment rate remains at historic lows
There was another sign of just how tight the labor market remains: The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June from 3.7% the month before.
The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 17 months in a row — the longest such stretch since the 1970s.
The jobless rate has remained low even as more workers have entered the workforce.
The share of working-age (25-54 year old) men in the job market rose to 89.2% in June — matching the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of working-age women in the job market hit a record high of 77.8%.
Not everyone is reaping the benefits of the tight job market, however.
The unemployment rate for African Americans, which fell to a record low of 4.7% in April, has risen in each of the last two months, reaching 6% in June.
Here's more good news for workers: Wages are climbing
With solid job growth and low unemployment, employers are having to compete for workers with higher wages.
Average wages in June were 4.4% higher than a year ago. That matches the annual pay hikes in April and May.
Wages are not rising as fast as they did last year, but the good news is, neither are prices.
Annual wage gains in May outpaced price hikes, so workers' real buying power increased. (Inflation figures for June will be released next week.)
But a solid jobs market makes things harder for the Fed
Rising wages are good for workers, but the Federal Reserve is worried that if paychecks increase too rapidly, it could put upward pressure on inflation — especially in service industries where wages are one of employers' biggest expenses.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting in June, but signaled that might be just a pause and suggested that rates would likely need to continue rising to bring down inflation.
Now, with another month of solid job growth and rising wages, markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when policymakers meet later this month.
And more rate hikes could be in store should the economy continue to show signs of resilience.
veryGood! (95694)
Related
- Why we love Bear Pond Books, a ski town bookstore with a French bulldog 'Staff Pup'
- Bringing up a baby can be a tough and lonely job. Here's a solution: alloparents
- At least 12 people are missing after heavy rain triggers a landslide and flash floods in Indonesia
- Goalie goal! Pittsburgh Penguins' Tristan Jarry scores clincher against Lightning
- Elon Musk's skyrocketing net worth: He's the first person with over $400 billion
- Judge dismisses legal challenge against Virginia state senator over residency allegations
- Ohio white lung pneumonia cases not linked to China outbreak or novel pathogen, experts say
- Public Funding Gave This Alabama Woman Shelter From the Storm. Then Her Neighbor Fenced Her Out
- 'We're reborn!' Gazans express joy at returning home to north
- Somali maritime police intensify patrols as fears grow of resurgence of piracy in the Gulf of Aden
Ranking
- 'Kraven the Hunter' spoilers! Let's dig into that twisty ending, supervillain reveal
- Illinois appeals court affirms actor Jussie Smollett’s convictions and jail sentence
- What happens to Rockefeller Christmas trees after they come down? It’s a worthy new purpose.
- Barbie’s Simu Liu Shares He's Facing Health Scares
- New data highlights 'achievement gap' for students in the US
- Ex-correctional officer at federal prison in California gets 5 years for sexually abusing inmates
- Alec Baldwin did not have to pay to resolve $25M lawsuit filed by slain Marine's family
- How Off the Beaten Path Bookstore in Colorado fosters community, support of banned books
Recommendation
'As foretold in the prophecy': Elon Musk and internet react as Tesla stock hits $420 all
Stuck on holiday gifts? What happened when I used AI to help with Christmas shopping
Ohio white lung pneumonia cases not linked to China outbreak or novel pathogen, experts say
Biden campaign rips Trump's health care policies in new ad
Trump suggestion that Egypt, Jordan absorb Palestinians from Gaza draws rejections, confusion
Endless shrimp and other indicators
Jury orders egg suppliers to pay $17.7 million in damages for price gouging in 2000s
Taylor Swift’s Rep Slams Joe Alwyn Marriage Rumors